00:00:00 Introduction to the webinar series

Eliza Avgeropoulou: Thank you, Faye, for the nice introduction. My name is Eliza, as Faye mentioned earlier, and this is the first webinar of our webinar series. To give you a bit more background information on this series, in this first webinar, we are going to explain the Theory of Change. The second webinar covers the results framework and LogFrame; the results framework actually builds upon the Theory of Change. Then, indicators and measurement methods are considered part of the LogFrame. Thus, the third and fourth webinars will build upon the previous ones in order to finally arrive at the final session, which covers how to develop the MEAL plan. It would be great if you have time to attend or watch the recordings of all five webinars, as each one builds on the previous content.

The incentive for this webinar series is our willingness and passion to raise awareness on how a solid MEAL system design enables evidence-based decision-making through systematic learning. We wish to raise awareness on the different tools that compose the MEAL system and explain how the systematic use of databases can enable the evidence-based decision-making that we mention frequently in the humanitarian and development sectors.

00:02:15 Agenda and objectives

Today's agenda focuses on explaining what the Theory of Change is. The first objective is to understand the definition of the Theory of Change. The second part is to understand why we need the Theory of Change in order to understand how we can use it. The third objective is to learn how we can develop a Theory of Change in an easy way. While it may sound like a complicated concept, it is not actually that difficult. We will go through the elements of the Theory of Change and mention some best practices regarding its development.

00:03:30 What is the Theory of Change?

Broadly speaking, the Theory of Change is an ongoing process of reflection to explore how change is happening. It is used to dig deeper into what change means for a specific target population, a specific context, and a specific sector. If we take a closer look, the Theory of Change aims to describe the logical flow between a key problem and its immediate causes.

For example, when we enter a country or a location to design an intervention, the first thing we think of is the problem this intervention will solve and the causes of this problem. This helps determine which intervention is best suited to address those causes. This is where the Theory of Change comes in; it aims to explain the logical flow between the problem and its causes. It aims to explain the long-term change. Always, when we design an intervention, it has a long-term goal. The Theory of Change explains the pathway of how whatever we do within our project will contribute to that higher goal.

I like to imagine it as a tree—the "problem tree." This tree has causes and the problem. If we turn it upside down, the problem becomes what we want to address via intervention, and the causes, if we reverse the logic, become those interventions that we can affect directly through project implementation.

Regarding the timeline, the thinking on the Theory of Change takes place before project implementation. If you think through the first stages of designing a proposal, that is where the Theory of Change is being developed.

00:05:45 A fictional scenario: Homeland

To make this practical, I will use a simple, fictional example to illustrate reality. Imagine we have a country named "Homeland." The context is that this country has received thousands of refugees from neighboring countries over the past years, and we are now in the third year of this humanitarian crisis. Priorities have changed compared to the first years. The people coming into this country wish to build a future in this specific context.

We are in a setting where NGOs collaborate with the government to identify pathways that can lead to better integration of the target population and identify the most appropriate interventions. Our role is working as part of the MEAL team to support and facilitate the programming teams. The timing is perfect because the programming team has just developed the proposal, so we are coming in at the right time to help them think through this Theory of Change.

00:07:00 Why do we need a Theory of Change?

Broadly speaking, the Theory of Change is a tool that helps practitioners unpack a box of assumptions about change. When we have an intervention, we assume it will solve a problem. However, there are sets of assumptions we need to unpack to realize which ones we can affect via intervention and which are outside our control—such as governmental decisions. We need to have an open mind because contexts differ. The Theory of Change is a way to clarify gaps, acknowledge them, and keep an eye on them to revisit when needed.

A good Theory of Change approach begins not with a tool or guidance, but with an open discussion with a local partner about what they do and why they are doing it. It helps us articulate and justify the specific logic of our intervention. It explains the pathway. If we reverse the problem tree logic, the problem becomes our goal, and the causes become strategic objectives or intermediate results. The Theory of Change helps us explain how we go from intermediate results to the goal.

In our simple example, let's say the problem is that it is challenging for refugees to integrate into the local context. One of the causes is a lack of income. If we reverse this, the facilitation of integration becomes the long-term goal, generating income becomes the strategic objective, and access to the labor market becomes the intermediate result.

The Theory of Change also supports project teams and facilitates learning by making our learning more focused. It illustrates the main hypothesis of the project. Furthermore, it facilitates communication. We are frequently in a position to communicate the logic of our intervention to different stakeholders, such as donors or the government. It provides an easy way to explain what we are doing and what we want to succeed with our intervention.

00:12:30 Developing a Theory of Change: If, Then, Because

The Theory of Change is essentially a hypothesis: If we do X and Y, and it is true, then we will achieve Z, because of A, B, C, and D. Let’s unpack this.

The "If": This represents the preconditions that need to be addressed through the intervention, as well as assumptions that may not be directly addressed but are critical for the achievement of the long-term goal. Examples of assumptions include governmental decisions or context factors. We usually identify these "ifs" using assessment data from gap analyses, capacity assessments, or barrier analyses.

In our example, this translates to: If we enable refugees to enter the local labor market and the government provides work permits based on refugee status. Here, one part we can affect directly (enabling entry to the market), and the second part is an assumption we cannot control directly (government permits), but we know it affects our project.

The "Then": This is the long-term change. In our example, the "then" is integration. This coincides with the core problem in our problem tree.

The "Because": This provides the evidence of why the hypothesis holds true. When we design an intervention, we have data in mind from assessments, past experience, or studies. In our example: Because studies have shown that accessing the labor market is an enabling factor for integration.

So, the whole Theory of Change reads: If we enable refugees to enter the local labor market and generate income, and the government provides work permits based on refugee status, then the refugees will be integrated, because studies have shown that accessing the labor market is an enabling factor for integration.

00:16:45 Interactive session: Participant examples

Eliza Avgeropoulou: I would like to make this interactive and invite some of you to share an example of this hypothesis based on your own project experience.

Danish: We are doing a local governance project. If local planning and budgeting cycles are improved to allow for outcome-based, participatory planning, and the capacities of the local councils are developed, then it will strengthen the process of decentralization and institutionalize participatory local governance. This is based on studies from South Asian countries such as Malaysia and India.

Eliza Avgeropoulou: That sounds like a Theory of Change that could work. That is a nice example.

Lynette: I am from Kenya. We are working on a project where the community is trying to rehabilitate degraded land. My theory would be: If communities are organized to work together, then they will jointly solve the land degradation problems facing them, because solving landscape problems needs the involvement of the community, not just individuals.

Eliza Avgeropoulou: That is great. I like community engagement projects; they are challenging but very valuable. It sounds like a solid hypothesis.

Mohammed: I am working in Afghanistan with Women for Women International. A Theory of Change could be: If women are empowered through integration initiatives and social works, and the government is supported through working policy and advocacy, then women could be a supportive body together with male members of the family. Because recent surveys show higher levels of income generation where both male and female members work together in the community.

Anwar: I work with Polish Humanitarian Action based in Somalia, but I am from Kenya. We are providing communities with improved access to water. We say that if we provide the communities with construction materials and they are committed to participate by providing locally available materials, then the communities will have access to sustainable water and increased income, because increased agricultural activities will boost economic activities.

00:25:30 Steps to develop a Theory of Change

The first step is to identify the problem. The heart of this is the use of assessment data (primary or secondary) to identify the core problem and its causes. Sometimes causes are direct, and sometimes they are indirect.

The second step is to identify the pathways. We must identify how the causes lead to the core problem. By identifying this route, we also identify the assumptions. We need to be conscious of what we can and cannot do.

The third step is to make decisions. Once we have identified the problem, pathways, and assumptions, we decide which intervention is most appropriate for the specific population and context.

The final step is the Theory of Change formulation. In reality, this is not a linear process. There is a lot of back and forth between these steps. The Theory of Change is the first step for the results framework, but in practice, there is constant revision.

00:27:15 Best practices

The problem tree can be chaotic because reality is chaotic; we need to be comfortable with that. We must use our assessment data to prioritize. It is important to be participatory and include all relevant stakeholders—government, donors, local organizations, and the affected population.

We need to keep an open mind. It is never a linear process. Most importantly, the Theory of Change, like the whole MEAL system, is a living document. We frequently need to go back, revise, and adjust. When we start thinking about the Theory of Change, it is the first time we start thinking about the information we will need throughout project implementation. Conversations around the Theory of Change help formulate the project logic and the information requirements.

00:29:00 Participant feedback on best practices

Saif: I observed during my project management experience that for an effective Theory of Change, there is always a need to measure every part of the indicators. Indicator measurement is essential for a strong Theory of Change.

Eliza Avgeropoulou: Yes, you are right. Indicators are the heart of the MEAL system.

Janie: I want to share what I have learned today regarding the "If, Then, Because" structure. In processes I have been involved in, we only had the "If" and the "Then." I see the importance of the "Because" as it brings us to assumptions and forces us to think about evidence. When you say "because studies have shown," you must refer to studies or evaluations. I also like the fact that you say the Theory of Change is a living document. I have seen us develop it during design and only look at it again after five years during an evaluation.

Eliza Avgeropoulou: Thank you for the nice feedback.

00:34:00 Q&A Session

Question: How would you describe the difference between a Theory of Change and a logic model? Should you use both?

Eliza Avgeropoulou: It is better to use both. The conversation for the Theory of Change will lead to the conversation for the results framework. The results framework is more towards project implementation and articulates activities and interventions in detail. The Theory of Change is on the upper level; it contains the objective, the goal, the pathway, and assumptions that are not always clearly stated in a results framework.

Question: Is the Theory of Change the first thing that should be done in project design? Who takes the lead?

Eliza Avgeropoulou: Intuitively, we all do it in the proposal development. We discuss it when we write the proposal. The programming teams usually take the lead because they have the sectoral expertise to know which interventions are best suited for the problem.

Question: What happens if there is no robust evidence in the field we are working in?

Eliza Avgeropoulou: In the absence of robust evidence, you can use assessment data. Assessments are meant to be short, qualitative, and quick. If you go out for a quick qualitative exercise, this can give you an indication to confirm or reject what you are thinking.

Question: On the "Because" part, does that mean the project has to do studies?

Eliza Avgeropoulou: The "Because" is the evidence. It can come from secondary data, pre-existing data, or primary data collection. It backs up why we are doing something and why we think we will succeed.

Question: How do we develop assumptions that relate to our program?

Eliza Avgeropoulou: Assumptions come from assessment data and conversations with key actors. If we do not identify them, we run the risk of not being able to monitor them. If an assumption fails, we might not be able to adjust our project implementation timely.

Question: Is it possible to write a Theory of Change in an emergency project?

Eliza Avgeropoulou: Yes, emergency projects are fast-track, but the Theory of Change is still there. Even in emergencies, when we use assessment data to construct a problem tree, it is happening, just faster than in a development project. It follows the same reasoning in a lighter mode.

Question: How often should we revisit the Theory of Change?

Eliza Avgeropoulou: We need to revisit it when significant things take place that affect project implementation. If any of our assumptions hold true that hinder implementation, we need to revise. Also, if there is a sudden contextual change, we must revisit the Theory of Change.

Eliza Avgeropoulou: I think we have answered many questions. We are over time, so I invite you to join the next presentation next Thursday, where we will look into details on LogFrames and results frameworks. Thank you all.